Last week was a frustrating week but the more I thought about it, the more it hit home to me that there is no future in backing even money favourites or taking even worse odds. Shalabiya and Duke Of Plumpton started odds on and both got beaten and came second. You have to back a high proportion of winners to just break even! Miss Seth was a decent value winner rated at $3, and could be backed at $6 which is much better value and you don’t have to back 50% winners to make a long term profit. So I will pay more attention to horses that are at least $3 or more.
Bet of the day Cambridge Race 4 1 Bright Thoughts $3.20 FF
Value bet of the day Race 5 6 Phantom Major $5 FF Scratched Replace with Spanish Lad as Value Bet of the day
Multi of the day with Bright Thoughts and Fierce both to win: $10 returns $118 Yes
Race 4
Confidence:3/5 1st $3
1. Bright Thoughts last start at his first go over ground, he drew out and began well to get across and trail. From there he got out on the turn but the rider dropped his whip and but he still battled well to the line for third. If he was able to use his whip he would have been second. Drawn much better and should lead or trail and Matt Cartwright will be keen to get the win. The Nose Band going on will help as well. RP $2.20, $3.20 FF
Race 7
Confidence:2/5 2nd $2.50
3.Spanish Lad has won here 5 times over the course and distance. He has been freshened up since last racing and maps to get a good run in the first four. Good eachway bet. RP $4.50, $6 FF
Warwick Farm
Race 5
Confidence:3/5 Scratched
6.Phantom Major was unlucky on debut when held up till the 200 then flashed for second. Then he settled back off an even pace over 1200 and got out and balanced up and powered home to win going away in good time. He is a big powerful galloper and with a lot of closing speed and he will be hard to beat with Nash Rawiller up and Chris Waller trained. Queen’s Gamble in race 2 ran 2nd to him in that win so if she goes well from her wide draw, it will help frank the form.RP $3., $5 FF
Race 6
Confidence:3/5 1st $2.90
9.Fierce looks a good bet fresh up here. He has won twice fresh up- once on debut then a few months later over 1000m in excellent closing sectionals. He has had two trials to get him ready for this and he finished off fast late when asked to go in his last one. Drawn ideally as there is plenty of speed in this and he can come with the last run at them. RP $2.60, $3.60 FF
