A top day with 2 of the 3 Good Confidence bets winning – at least the nods went our way!
Ellerslie
Good morning,
Some excellent fields today and some big open races. Grocer’s Girl $6 4th and Miss Magnetica $4.50 1st $7.90. look the best placed runners all day, and Hedley Grange $5 1st $3.80 , is a good strong horse ready to go in Sydney.
New Plymouth has a very heavy track and you never know where the bias will be if at all, so I have ignored it.
Bet of the day Ellerslie Race 1 Grocer’s Girl $4.50 FF 4th with taking the wrong option to come out instead of going for the rails run
Value Bet of the day Race 5 14.Miss Magnetica $6 FF now $4.80 1st $6 FF, $7.90 tote
Speed map special Randwick Race 7 1.Hedley Grange $5 FF 1st $3.80
Multi Of the Day Grocer’s Girl Top 2, Miss Magnetica Top 2, Hedley Grange Top 3. $10 returns $105
Recommended quaddie for $39.20 for 10%
Ellerslie Missed
Race 1
Confidence:3/5 Bonus back race up to $50 and a race where the Grocer’s Girl looks well placed to win fresh up.
6.Grocer’s Girl went three very good races last campaign. He was beaten by Exite at Te Rapa but she got no favours in that and finished right up his backside. She went two very good placings here. At the Avondale trials she came home under wraps for second. She is a big filly, with the early speed to take up an on pace position and with Excite drawing out wide, he will have to go forward and that means Grocer’s Girl would need to lead and he would need to work to get 2nd outer. Or if he drops back, the slow to moderate pace means Grocer’s Girl has the definite advantage being on pace. RP $2.20, $4.50 FF
Dangers:
1.Excite is the on e to beat after his strong form last campaign. In his recent trial he sat 3 wide in the open in a virtually Group 2 heat and wasn’t asked for a serious effort and finished a nice fifth. He will likely go back from the draw, depending on how he jumps, and with a lack of pace is in danger of getting outsprinted.
2.Proteus ran a top 2nd at Te Rapa in a strong field. From the draw should get a good run and be right in it.
7.Asturia has run some nice trials and won her last one well after jumping ok. From the handy draw, will be a Top 4 chance.
Race 2
Confidence:1/5 in a race with a few chances.
6.Quick Fire went a strong race for a close 3rd last start behind race rival Diamond Jack. She meets him 2.5kgs better off at the weights and if she can slide forward without being used up and get outside the leader, she can get going early and make them carry the bigger weights and hold on. RP $5, $6 FF
Dangers:
3.Hezashocka needed that last run and drawn to get a good run and the Visor Blinkers go on. He can be in the finish.
1.Diamond Jack keeps carrying big weights and winning. 62.5kgs means she will need all favours
2.Fly My Wey battled on well last start for fifth and may have needed that run. Gets in well at the weights.
Race 3
Confidence:2/5 It is a big open field.
9.Interplantary Last start from the wide draw he began well, snagged back for cover , was caught wide and finished off hard for fourth in very good sectionals. Ready for a middle distance and looks well placed. Good eachway bet. RP $6, $10 FF
Dangers:
2.Double Take won this race last year leading all the way. With a lack of on pace runners, may try and do the same.
10.Sharapova won really well last start and looked good doing it. Good draw and is right in this.
Race 4
Confidence:2/5
9.Ocean Rules won her second raced stylishly and is ready to go fresh up based on her trial where she raced handy and wasn’t ridden out to finish 5th. Drawn 1 and should settle midfield and can come with the last run at them. RP $6, $10 FF
Dangers:
1.Le Jacques Cartier is a good horse who hasn’t trialed. Opie jumps on from a good draw and he should be right in this.
11.With a Vengeance won smartly on debut and looks ready to again fresh up after his smart trial win. Drawn well.
Race 5
Confidence:3/5
14.Miss Magnetica is better than a maiden galloper. She got no clear air last start in a strong maiden field and was going very well. She was impressive in her trial before that and maps to get back on the outside off a solid pace and should get her chance to show her ability and can beat these. Opened at $10 which was way overs, and even at $6 is good value. RP $3.30, $6 FF
Race 6
Confidence:1/5
1.Drommy just went down last start to a handy horse in Zenith. He drops back in class for this and drawn well. Carries a big weight but looks the one in a big even field. RP $4, $3.80 FF
Race 7
Confidence:2/5
8.Pounce is a good filly as she showed when she won here coming from off the pace. She ran on ok fresh up at Taupo but the ground didn’t suit her. There looks to be a good pace in this which will allow her to get over these late. RP $5
Dangers:
1.She’s No Saint is in great form and should lead or trail and if she isn’t taken on too much, can win.
5.Silhouette ran on strongly late fresh up when clear late. With a good pace in this, she can be right in it.
3.Miss Janet with a clean beginning she can lead, and has the form on the board to win this.
Race 8
Confidence:1/5
4.Iridescent ran a strong second last start and rates on top here and with a good tempo very likely, gets her chance to upset these with the freshen up. RP $7, $16 FF
Dangers:
3.Origin Of Love is a very good filly and has had two trials to get her ready for this. Drawn well.
8.Oberon won well from the trail last start holding out a couple of handy horses. Maps to get the trail again and can be a winning chance.
5.Tajana is ready to go fresh and drawn ideally.
Race 9
The speed map shows Alabama Lass leading with other settling into position fairly quickly without want gutbusters fresh up. Predicted pace moderate, with Alabama Lass getting a soft lead.
Confidence:2/5
12.Alabama Lass led easily at Te Rapa and set an even pace and held on well in an excellent time on the track conditions. So she has the benefit of that top run and over the 1400m she can lead them easily and dictate. If she can come around that final bend and get a break on them she can hold these out. RP $4.00, $5.50 FF
Dangers:
15. Well Written is a very good mare, that looks to have come up well. But this is by far her biggest test and you never know if fillies can go on with it as a 4yo. At $1.80, she is too short.
6.Tuxedo maps to settle 3 back on the fence and with Opie on board, he will be finishing hard late.
7.Media World ran a good second to Alabama Lass at Te Rapa and will likely be in the trail and get every chance again.
Race 10
Confidence:1/5 in a very open race.
11.Vito has looked very good at his last two starts and this race sets up nicely for him. Sam Collett knows him well and he is a nice galloper. RP $6, $14 FF
Dangers:
8.Towering Vision went a good race fresh up and has won and run 2nd, second up, before. From 1 at the barrier can take a sit on the fence off the solid pace and come with the last run. RP $4.50, $4.50 FF
6.Zenith has won his last two impressively and with a good run is in this.
7.Lotus looks well placed with the 3kg allowance and rates on top in the Formpro ratings.
Randwick
Race 7
Confidence:3/5
1.Hedley Grange has some excellent form fresh up. He ran a fast closing fourth to Joliestar and Beiwacht fresh up in a Group 1 over 1300m and then won a Group 1 at Eagle Farm fresh. He has drawn the inside and maps to get an ideal run. He is very strong through the shoulder and is good value. RP $3.50, $5.50 FF
