A disappointing day. A couple of trifectas at Ellerslie but no joy at Trentham. It just seems a race to get to the outide fence for those that are handling the ground the best.
Saturday Preview.
Good morning,
I have previewed every race at Ellerslie and 3 races at Trentham.
I will post an update by 10.30 with Australian selections
Enjoy the ride .
Neil
Update 10.20:
No single bets in Australia but the Caulfield quaddie is worth a bet.
Caulfield quaddie, $22.40 for 10%:
Caulfield
The bet of the day Trentham Race 6 6.Meloni $2.40 FF, Odds Surge $2.70 3rd $1.50
Value bet of the day Trentham Race 7 6.Who Knows $7.50 FF, $8.50 OS Got too far back and ran on to midfield
Multi of the day with Meloni to win with Who Knows Top 3 $10 returns $67.20
Ellerslie suggested quaddie $33.60 for 10%
Ellerslie
Race 1
Confidence:2/5 Bonus Back Race
13.Shore Breeze unlucky 3rd has looked very good at the trials and drawn out. She settles nicely so if she can get cover behind midfield, there should be enough pace up front for her to get over them. RP $3.70, $3.60 FF
Dangers:
5.Magnate has travelled here and looked very good at the trials. Will get back and power home.
1.Spellbound 1st $6 drawn the ace and ran well enough in his recent runs to be a place chance.
10.Acclivitous trialled well and drawn well.
Race 2
Confidence:2/5 Bonus Back Race
2.Guipago last start here was slow out but was used up to go forward and eventually led. He was run down on the line and 2400m will obviously suit. RP $4.50, $7 FF
Dangers:
7.Interplanetary 1st $3 has been finding the line nicely in his last two races. Peaking now and right in this.
5.Paper Romance won easily and in good time. Up in class here and $1.95 is too short.
Race 3
Confidence:2/5
4.Santa Catalina. They have been taking their turns at winning these races and she is the new lady on the block. She goes best this way round and is ready to win. RP $3.60, $4.20
Race 4
The speed map shows a lack of pace
Confidence:2/5
7.Grocer’s Girl 2nd and a good run qu $4.70 was badly ridden fresh up when the rider who was trailing, was determined to get off the rail and took forever to get out and get going to finish a strong closing 4th, while the winner came up the fence, where she should have gone. This time, she can take the lead and if something takes her on, let them go, so long as they don’t crawl, lead near the turn, and she is well weighted to kick on these and hold on. RP $3.60, $4.60 FF
Dangers:
2.System Of Play 1st $2 and impressive has trialed well with two solid trials and drawn well.
Race 5
Confidence:2/5
8.Getaway 3rd ran a strong race last start here when she on a strong pace and fought well for third. The only doubt is the how much did that take out of her. If she is fine, she maps to get a softer run on pace, and be tough to beat. RP $3.50, $3 FF
Race 6 1st leg of the quaddie
The speed map shows a solid tempo suiting runners with a cosy run or off the pace.
Confidence:2/5
13.Sarti can run some above average sectionals off a decent tempo. He will get that here and 1300m will suit. Negative us he will need luck coming from off the pace but Michael McNab is pretty good at doing that. RP $3 and $2.20 FF is too short so he may drift.
Dangers:
1.Day One 1st 4.20 Tri $341 was impressive winning here over 1600m when 8th 3w no cover, closer wider turn, kicked away 100m and won easily. He has a stayers action so 1300m fresh up is a query. Trialed very nicely without being pushed.
11.Live On Air 3rd $4 ran on nicely fresh up in good sectionals, has the blinkers going on and is a good roughie capable of winning this.
3.Los Santos 2nd $2.70 is ready for a peak effort off two strong seconds.
Race 7
The speed map shows a solid pace suiting runners with cosy runs or off the pace
Confidence:1/5 in an open race
8.Landlock 2nd $3 Tri $123 fresh up came home nicely for fifth in good sectionals. He will like the better track and drawn to land midfield inner and with the decent pace, get his chance to upset these. The enforced break on trainer Cody Cole seems to have made him more determined as he has won his last to races. He has always had faith in this horse. RP $6, $13 FF
Dangers:
9.Confessara 3rd $3 is a nice horse capable of some excellent closing sectionals. Fresh up she can win with the right run.
7.Golden Wings 1st $1.70 is a $2.90 favourite but is going to get some pressure here. Depends how much as to his winning chances. Won his trial very well leading after 100m and holding on well.
4.Scolera freshened up since her smart win and drawn 1.
15.Sista Sugar can upset with the right run.
Race 8
The speed map shows a good pace with Perfect Dividends and Riverplate setting a decent pace.
6.Arabian Songbird looks set to make it three fresh up wins here in a row. She trialed up recently and hit the line strongly. She looks ready to win again fresh up and should get the pace up front to get over them with the very light weight. RP $3.60, $3.50 FF
Dangers:
8.Mosinvader after two nice runs looks set to peak third up and should get the race run to suit.
7.Top Shelf 1st $4 is in for a good season as she improved a lot last season. Trialed nicely at Taupo.
10.Perfect Dividends if he gets a soft lead can hold on for the First Four.
Race 9
The speed map shows an even pace suiting all runners
Confidence:1/5
2.Alka Traz 2nd $3 has run two excellent races so far and impressed with his last start win. he has drawn 2 and should get an ideal run and can win from there. RP $5, $7 FF
Dangers:
11.Ocean Rules ran a nice 4th and won second up, and impressively over 1400.
12.Luvabeel looks ready to go fresh up after two trail runs and McNab on top.
1.Golden Point ran home strongly last start and gets the inside draw and can race much handier.
Trentham
Race 2
Confidence:2/5
5.Bellas won well last start beating startles who has since won in strong company. She has race fitness as an advantage over these and is third up and more experienced. A heavy track should be no problem. RP $5, $8 and $1.60 top 3
Race 6
Confidence:3/5
6.Meloni needed that fresh up run when he sweated up, was held up near the turn, got out too late and ran the best last 200 metres. he looks a definite improver and the trainer Robbie Patterson is very confidence he will win. Drawn the inside which may be a negative but with Craig Grylls up, he looks very well placed. RP $2.00, $2.50 Ff
Race 7
Confidence:3/5
6.Who Knows looks very well placed here. She won fresh up here over 1600m in very good time on a decent surface. She handles softer ground just as well, if not better. When she won here she had two trails anmd her last one was at Foxton where she won easily. This time, she has had two trials, and the last one was back at Foxton and she won even easier. She gets in on an winning weight and has won her last two starts here. She is a good mare who looks well placed against these. RP $3.50, $7 FF, $8 Odds Surge
