Te Aroha
A neat day of racing at Te Aroha with the Great Northern Steeplechase the big attraction. There are a few good value runners and it should make for a very interesting day of racing.
Enjoy the ride.
Neil
Bet of the day Race 5 2.Teleost $2.20 FF
Value bet of the day Race 2 2.Invisible Spirit $6.50 FF and the quinella with Taika at $5.10 FF
Race 1
Confidence:2/5
9.The Finnster by all accounts is a good jumper and he likes to lead. So he will be out of trouble and with the form he is in is the one to beat. RP $3.60, $3.30 FF
Dangers:
11.Fleur De Champ ran on well from midfield on the turn on Friday for a solid finishing 2nd. Jumps well.
10.Yolo is in good form on the flat and hurdles well.
1.Heza Warrior won well here last start and just needs to repeat that effort to be right in this.
Race 2
Confidence:3/5
2.Invisible Spirit can beat the hot pot here and is good value to do it. He led up at Riccarton and was run down over the last 200m for third by Lord Spencer who is the $2.50 favourite for the big one today. He was right in the Grand National and had enough near the 800m mark. So he has very good form in better fields than this. He trialed at Foxton recently and ran a very nice second and looks well placed here in this 0 – 1 win steeples race, and he gets 2kgs off. RP $3, $6.50 FF and $1.90 FF
Danger:
7.Taika looked very well placed on Friday in a weak maiden and did it easily. But he faces a jumper here that has far better steeples form and is $1.70. He looks the obvious danger but is no value. The quinella is a better bet.
Race 3
Confidence:2/5
12.Frontline Warrior is making his debut here and is a chance to get into the top 3 in a weak field. He trialed at Avondale and ran on well, handling the heavy track well for a nice closing 4th. Then he trialed at Te Awamutu and was well back and ran on ok without being worked on. He is by Belardo and and is a 3yo worth a dollar or two. RP $7, $13 FF and $3.80 FF
Danger:
2.Rocky Belle looked to have it won after a tough run last start, but was out-bobbed. Obvious chance in a weak field.
Race 4
Confidence:2/5
3.Smug jumped well when he won here last start and was drawing away in the last 100m which looks good for this longer distance. Don’t forget he beat the champion jumper West Coast at Woodville last year. He loos the value here.RP $4. $4.80 FF
Dangers:
2.Lord Spencer is the obvious danger and is right in this.
5.Brucie needed that last run after a game close second to Lord Spencer in the Grand National.
8.Christmas wouldn’t be here unless he had a realistic chance.
Race 5
Confidence;4/5
2.Teleost is bred to win a few races and was very unlucky on debut. He was going like the winner in the trail, then got pushed back to last and did very well to get up for second. You don’t see them do that on a heavy track there too often. Nice galloper and should win. RP $1.40, $2.20 FF
Danger:
1.Colgate ran a game second here on Friday but has had a few chances after a promising debut.
9.Lady Charlton is a good top 3 chance and well weighted.
Race 6
Confidence:2/5
4.Derryman went a very good race last start in a stronger $75k field at Ellerslie. And he was unlucky when held up till late and hit the line hard. he has won on heavy ground and goes very well this way round. He also rates on top in the Formpro Ratings. RP $5, $9 FF
Dangers:
2.So Call Me is very good on the flat and is right in this.
6.Wry Smile won well on Friday and can do it again.
1.Early Times drawn well and good 3rd last start. Scotty on top.
Race 7
Confidence:2/5
8.Mister Pucci rana good fifth here on Friday when he was back, improved in the slower inner ground, led 250m out and was swamped wider out. He ran a nice 5th here in Open company two starts back. He has drawn wide here which means he can come down the outer with the winning run and he gets 3kgs off his back. RP $4, $6 in from $13 which was snapped up quickly.
Dangers:
1.Trainwreck ran a very good second last start in stronger R65 field. gets 3kgs off and is the one Mr Pucci has to nail.
