Saturday preview

Good morning,

I have previewed all races at Hastings and a few at Rosehill. An excellent day of racing. I mentioned the Place Extra yesterday and a couple of subscribers took notice and were very pleased that Roc All Night was in the first three yesterday for very good collects. So I have suggested one of those bets below.

Enjoy the ride.

Neil

Bet of the day in NZ Hastings Race 5 1.Pounce $3.70 FF

Value Bet of the Day in NZ Hastings Race 8 13.Special Sakura $23

Bet of the day in Australia Rosehill Race 5 6.Decorum $1.90 FF 1st $2

Value bet of the day in Australia Race 2 6.Giddy Up Griff $6 FF

HASTINGS

Our trackwalker Brendan, walked the track on Thursday and said, ” The inside 5 metres of fresh ground is definitely faster than the used outer part. So I would expect it to play leaders and on pace.” Since then they have put 6mm off irrigation on.

Race 1

Confidence:2/5 Bonus back race

8.Acushla did very well last start over 1800m when handy wide in the open and fought bravely for second. There doesn’t look a lot of pace in this so she may well go forward, and if she can get a good run on pace, with the moderate pace likely, she will be in the right place to show that toughness again. RP $4.50, $7 FF

Dangers:

1.Eliud is ready for a middle distance now. Drawn well and gets 2kgs off.

6.Los Salsero has been racing strongly and with a good ride, is in this.

4.Tulsa King has been beaten by the slow tempos and if he can get a drag into it at the right time, is in this.

Race 2

Confidence:2/5 Bonus back Race

8.Big Wave won impressively fresh up and can step up in grade successfully from this draw. He is in a light weight and has the pace to be in the trail or 3 back and be an eachway chance from there. RP $4.50, $4.80 FF

Dangers:

7.War Princess 1st $2.30 won impressively fresh up but it was a hard run. This is 1300m and she may be taken on here so doubt in the last 100m.

2.The Scunner can go well fresh. He has won two trials very well and gets 2kgs off.

1.Leroy Brown has won both his trials and gets 3kg off from a good draw.

 Race 3 Bonus back Race

Confidence:2/5

5.Will is a better horse than he showed when 5th here fresh up. He showed above average ability last campaign and maybe ridden colder could swamp them. RP $5, $7 FF

Dangers:

16.Evensong She looked good at the trials and has drawn well ready to go a big race.

8.Crimson Sky Unwound strongly at Ellerslie fresh up for 8th but is nearly always at the back half of the field so we’ll need luck.

3.Hervey Bay He has run 2 solid thirds and is ready for a peak effort 3rd up.

 Race 4

Confidence: 2/5 Bonus back Race

4.Cheerio 1st $3  is a good mare but the negative is she has draw wide. She has early pace and if she jumps well she is good enough to be used a little early and still win. Cody Cole is confident of a good run and she can get them ready fresh up. So a little luck needed but she is good enough. RP $3.60, 3.90 FF

Dangers:

8.Gin And Bare It Has very good speed and can use the inside drawer to advantage and be right in this.

2.Erin Go Bragh Has early speed to use it to advantage and from the Marsh stable has to be in this.

11.Laura’s Legacy won well last start and drawn well to take full advantage of it.

Race 5

Confidence:3/5

1.Pounce She won easily last start and drawn to get the perfect run and I see no reason to get off her. She looks and gallops like a top horse and must be hard to beat from the powerful O’Sullivan/ Scott team. RP $2.50, $3.70 FF

 Dangers:

2.Liguria Is a smart filly and looks the main danger to Pounce.

4.Hawea 1st $5 won well at Taupo But will get back and need luck against these.

5.Silhouette Has been finding the line strongly and must be in the 1st 4.

Race 6

The speed map shows a moderate to even pace

Confidence:2/5

3.Old Fashioned 1st $7  looks well placed here from the inside draw. He has early pace to either lead or trail and with no pressure likely to come, can get a soft lead ( Excite will be looking for cover) and be the one to run down. He trialed recently and came from 5th inner to beat Dubai’s Potiki and he ran 2nd with a top run in an Open handicap last week. RP $4. $7.50 FF

Dangers:

2.Fortunato was good winning at Taupo but the speed rating was poor and the form out of it poor. I did like the style of his win though and drawn to get the trail or on the pace.

1.Excite was average fresh up but with improvement can get into it.

10.Asturia ran the best closing sectionals from the back all day but a very poor speed rating. She will get back here and the better field and moderate pace could find her out.

Race 7

Confidence:2/5

6.Monologue 1st $2 Most of these have been going around taking their turns at winning. This new kid on the block looks to be too good for these. RP $3, $3.10 FF

Dangers:

5.Dubai’s Potoki He would be a real danger if he gets away on terms with the field. But it is a big but!

3.Fly My Wey 2nd has been going good races winning occasionally. Always around it.

2.Wolfgang with the right run could upset again.

Race 8

The speed map shows Media World and Special Sakura sharing the lead, and they won’t want to go hard as fresh up and doubts over a hard run 1600 for Media World. So an even to moderate pace, unless Crocetti and Afternoon Siesta come around and want it.

Confidence:2/5

13.Special Sakura maps to either lead or more likely sit outside Media World. She can relax well after showing early pace. Her run to win at Ellerslie was excellent over 1500. She soon lead and then was restrained in the lead, then was taken on most of the way, then kicked back and and won well. There were some good horses in there too, and her time was excellent. Then she led over 1600 at Trentham in the Breeders and just beaten by She’s a Dealer in an excellent speed rating and the track that day favoured runners off the fence. So if she can sit outside Media World, that can control the pace and then she can kick of the bend, and cause a decent upset at great odds. RP $7, $21 in from $46 FF !

Dangers:

6.Media World should share the pace with Special Sakura, and was beaten by two class horses last start and he was back in front 200m past the post. If he can get a soft 200m or 400m, which is likely. he can kick hard in the straight.

1.Waitak 1st $6  was coming home strongly in excellent sectionals and and if they do go hard, is the one they have to hold out.

2.First Five has needed his first two runs and third up left handed seems ideal for him.

Race 9

Confidence:2/5

13.Live On Air hit the line hard second up at Ellerslie and will relish the 1400m and solid pace. RP $6, $8.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Bradley has won fresh up and run 2^nd fresh up. Drawn well and is a realistic chance.

5.Came True fought hard after leading last start and should be in this for a long way.

4.Young Jackson fought on strongly last start and will need a good ride to win.

Rosehill

Race 1 Bonus Back Race

Confidence:2/5

2.Miss Spacegirl She has a very good record fresh up – 3 starts for two wins and a second and she has had two trials where she has done nothing in the running. She has drawn well and gets a 2 kilogramme allowance and looks ready to fire fresh up. Plus she has won a Saturday race beating Unleeshing who was third and a very good mare. RP $5, $8 FF

Race 2

Confidence:2/5

6.Giddy Up Griff has fashioned A fine record. He got clear Leighton straight and hit the line really hard for second over 1400 metres and steps to 1500 here which should be a bonus drawn well and waited well and maps well so looks a good each way chance. RP $4.50, $6 FF

Race 3

Confidence:3/5

2.Bella Montagna looks ready to win here. She is third up and the blinkers go on after a very good run last start in the Newcastle cup. She is a good tough Kiwi mare trained by Gai Waterhouse and looks well placed to win getting 5.5kgs off So You Are. RP $2, $2.45 FF

Race 5

Confidence:4/5

6.Decorum was a very impressive winner fresh up and good time and has one second up as well. He beat Unleashing easily last start and she was impressive last week. He has won four from six races and looks headed headed for better things. The money has come for him and he should get a winning run and be too good. RP $1.50, $1.90 FF

Race 6

Confidence:3/5

1.Blue Door set a solid pace last start and was run down by Guest House, a very good horse. She should get an uncontested lead here and be very hard to beat. RP $1.80 FF, $1.85 FF

Danger:

7.Ciaron’s Star put up  an amazing run when third at Randwick window was 5 the lengths last and got up for 3rd in a good time she can begin well and having drawn one with Zac Lloyd on, is a solid quinella chance if she can hold Blue Doors back. Has had two trials and has begun well in both. Fixed quinella is currently $7.25

Race 8

Confidence:3/5

1.Guest House  fresh up he won like a very good horse in excellent time and maps to settle about  4th or fifth and be very hard to beat from there.  Zac Lloyd  knows him well now and 1400 metres will suit -a great race. RP $2.20, $2.50 FF

Danger:

9.Under Focus has been looking for more ground. He has been hitting the line hard with a good stretch about him in excellent closing sectionals. The harder they go, the more chance he has.

4.Warwoven won strongly last start and 1400m from the inside barrier means he will get every chance.

5.St Gotthard has drawn out and will need some James magic if he is to win from there.