A good day with 3 out of 5 Good Confidence bets of 3/5 or better winning. The bets being Pilates who won very well and got out to $3.60. The other two were Meloni $2.80 for a max of $100, and Unleashing $2.00, and Genesis Runner 2nd and Aethelwulf 2nd.
Good morning,
I have previewed all races at Matamata where the weather is fine and the track has come back to a Soft 5. Hawera has rain and will probably get a heavy. They have big even fields there so I’m not keen there. I’ll post an update by 11am with maybe some more Ozzie selections.
Enjoy the ride.
Neil
Update 10.44 am Melbourne
Race 8
Confidence:2/5 3rd 1.60
5.Aeliana closed strongly late for second behind the best mare in Oz. She won the Ranvet 3rd up over 2000m and looks set to win this. She has won in Soft ground before and looks well placed. $3.50, $4 FF
Randwick
Race 8
Confidence:2/5 An unlucky 2nd $3
4.Ceowolf has been racing very well against top horses and is very fit now. Has good wet track form and is by Tavistock and they love any softening of the track. 59kgs is a fair weight to carry but if things go his way, he can win at good odds. RP $6, $12 FF
Bet of the Day Randwick Race 4 1.Genesis Runner $1.90 FF 2nd $1.40
Value bet of the Day Matamata Race 4 1.9.L’Aigle Noir $6.50 FF 3rd $2.70
Multi of the day with the two above to win $10 returns $123.50
Place multi of the Day $10 returns $75.80
Matamata Race 3 4.Pilates Top 2 $1.40 1st
Matamata Race 4 9.L’Aigle Noir Top 4 $1.75 3rd
Matamata Race 7 2.Lollapalooza Top 3 $1.70 5th
Randwick Race 4 1.Genesis Runner Top 2 $1.30 2nd
Randwick Race 5 16.Unleashing Top 2 $1.40 1st
Hawera
Race 2
Confidence:3/5 1st $2
4.Meloni was beaten by the crowd at Trentham last start when he lost his focus. The blinkers go on now and he is the best horse in the field and looks very hard to beat. RP $1.80, $2.45 FF, $2.80 Odds Surge
Race 6
Confidence:2/5 1st $5.50
1.Qali Al Farasha rates 22 points above these at set weights so is very well placed fresh up. The blinkers go on which says she is ready to fire fresh up after two nice trials. And she maps well with Wiremu Pinn on and from the strong Te Akau stable. RP $3.60, $3.80 FF (If the track gets to heavy with the rain around- no bet)
Randwick
Race 4
Confidence:3/5 2nd
1.Genesis Runner has had two runs back now and looks very well placed to win third up at set weights. He hit the line strongly fresh up for second in the best closing sectionals. Second up he got back and once clear found the line well for fourth. He is clear top rated and gets in very well at the weights. He has a good wet track action and has won on a heavy track so no worries if the rain comes and the blinkers go on. RP $1.70, $1.95 FF
Race 5
Confidence:3/5 1st
16.Unleeshing ran a terrific second here last start when late getting out and flashing home in the best closing sectionals for second. She has won here over 1600m, gets in on a winning weight and should win. The only negative is she will get back but with the good pace up front should gets the gaps on the turn. Won’t mind any rain. RP $1.70, $2.00 FF
Race 7
Confidence:3/5 2nd $1.50
7.Aethelwulf has been impressive coming through the grades and looks a justified favourite. They say connections of a scared of a soft track but he won on one and his heavy track fifth he was caught 3 wide in the open , was second up and battled on ok. So he had definite excuses. His galloping action certainly is good for a wet track, so if it gets to a genuine soft or even heavy, his price will lengthen and pay more. So I advise to wait for the better price. RP $2, $2.30 FF
Matamata
Race 1
Confidence:2/5 3rd $3
4.Papparazzi was a bit unlucky when hampered back to last then ran on strongly in very good sectionals for third. He is much stronger now and George Rooke sticks with him. If he can settle midfield he looks a good eachway bet. RP $5, $9 FF
Race 2
Confidence:2/5 4th
10.Lumumba last start she was caught three wide in the open near the even pace, yet still came home strongly for fourth. Fitter now after two runs. Wide draw but if she can get cover looks a nice chance. RP $6, $11 FF
Race 3
Confidence:3/5 Bonus back race. 1st got out to $3.60
4.Pilates was a beaten hot favourite when 3rd at Tauranga but looked like she could do with a few months to grow. And she has matured into a fine looking 4yo mare. And she is bred to be very good with her having the top mare Legs in her bloodlines. In both her trials so far this campaign she has dropped back and run home under a strong hold. There is going to be at least an even speed, and possibly faster, so if she can get cover, even 3 wide off the pace, you should see a very good mare extend and get over these. RP $1.60, $2.10 FF There are a few with opinions so she may drift.
Race 4
Confidence:2/5 3rd $2.70
9.L’Aigle Noir won easily fresh up last campaign then ran a game 3rd in $120k race behind That’s Gold. Later he ran a game sixth in the Kiwi race behind Well Written. He has had two Trials and hasn’t been asked for an effort in either. The Blinkers weren’t on then but they go back on now. Drawn well and looks a smart horse. RP $4, 6.50 FF
Race 5
Confidence:2/5 1st $3.50
8.Born To Be Royal ran third to Ohope Wins with a strong finishing burst. Then she won here over 2000m with Craig Grylls on. After two good runs for 4th over 16000m she looks well drawn and placed to win. RP $3.60, $3.70 FF
Race 6
Confidence:2/5 1st $3
3.The Precursor was impressive last campaign winning the Remutaka Classic $350K, in good time at Trentham at his first go over ground. Fresh up over 1600m, he got back and was doing some good work late for 9th. Drawn well and should be hard to beat and the money has come for him. RP $3.20, $3 FF
Race 7
Confidence:2/5
2.Lollapalooza ran 5th in the Kiwi behind Well Written and has come back strongly with a 2nd in a strong race at Ellerslie. Gets 2kgs off and ready now to strike from a good draw. RP $3.60, $4.40 FF
Race 8
Confidence:2/5 2nd
2.What You Wish For ran a top 2nd fresh up and goes well second up. Won second up last campaign and Craig Grylls jumps on who has won her twice before and the Blinkers go on. RP $3.60, $3.80 FF
Race 9
Confidence:2/5 3rd 1.80
14.Rip Tide did what very few winners have done at Taupo and come from last to win. I don’t how he ran the second best last 200 metres of 11.58 when he came from a length behind Royal Asset and finished 0.5L in front. I got him running his last 200m in 11.04, by far the best 200m for the whole day. He has been allowed to settle back in his trials and races and then run home strongly. From 2, Craig Grylls, who has ridden him in all his trials and races, may use the barrier but that depends on how the track is playing. He looks a very promising 3 year old who is paying $8 in the 2000 Guineas, so we will get a good gauge on his ability against these older horses. Rated Price (RP) $3.50, $3.80 FF
