Saturday preview

Race 10 at Ellerslie we have half a unit going on 2.6.7.8.and 9 8.Free Bird was too tough and the quaddie paid $538 so a $269 collect to make it $1089 closing balance. So on a tricky day we will have a multi on the two bet horses in the world, Ka Ying Rising and Autumn Glow for a $1829.52 return Ka Ying Rising ran a close second

Balance : 0.00

Race 5 Randwick. I’d have been more confident on 14.Cruizingthestars on a slow track but $100 win and $200 place at $12 and $3.60 . $820 closing balance. A battling run- need it wetter. 

Race 9 Dashing Dixie is a decent value bet at the odds. $100 win at $16 and $400 Top 4 at $3.30 and we have 1,2 5,6 and 15 in the quaddie. Fair run for 6th. Asturia too good. $1120 balance.

Race 8 Talisker is a drifter from the Te Akau stable which is a negative, so we will just watch the quaddie runners which are 2,4,6 and 9. Still live but I thought Cannon Hill was going to do it!

Race 7 We have the quaddie going on 1,5 6. and 9 so we will watch those. Platinum Attack did it easily! Back for race 8 at Ellerslie. Geegees Mistruth has 61.5kgs from an awkward draw so is no value.

Crikey, the time for race 1 at Randwich was 1.34.93 for the 1600 and 35.15 for the last 600m, so it is a Soft 5

Ellerslie Race 7 Suggested quaddie 10% for $40 and $200 for a 50% bet. $1820 – $200 = $1620

Race 6 Boxmoss looks good but I don’t like backing horses at their first run over ground against very fit horses, especially at a short price, so pass. Just as well after he missed the jump.

That Randwick track looks at least a Soft 6. The race was run slowly so the time won’t be good indicator, but the last 600 might be.

Ellerslie Race 5 Wee Nessy looked in need of the outing so pass on this race. Nice run for third off a slow tempo. Back for Race 6 at Ellerslie next.

Otaki Race 3 I like a few here so pass. I like Blondmoon for odds but not paying enough for the Top 4 at $2.20. Saved out money again. Remember, every bet you pull out on because of various reasons, is like backing a $2 winner. Back for race 5 soon. It will be very interesting to how the Randwick track plays. It’s a Soft 7 and a decent day there.

Ellerslie Race 4 I like 7. Born To be Royal but 6 and 4 look terrific and are ready to win, so pass. 6 and 4 ran the quinella $14 and Born To Be Royal had her chance. The sectionals from the 1200 were soft and gave it to Sweet Ice. Balance still $1820

Otaki Race 4 No Value in te favourite Singletary so pass on this race. Balance $1820. Won well but too short for us.

Ellerslie race 3 Crimson Sky will get back but the way the track is playing, that could be a real negative in a big field so I’ll just watch this race. Crimson Sky found trouble again! Kumara Straight won well- the sectionals and time should be interesting. Back for Race 2 Otaki soon.

Otaki Race 1 12 Aim to Miss looks very well and fit. $50 ew on her at $6.50 Odds Surge and $1.90 a pace. Magnate does too much wrong to back with confidence. Good win! Looked very fit. Bet $100 Returned $420. $320 net profit. Balance $1820. Back for Race 3 at Ellerslie

Race 2 It is a very open field and Hervey Bay is not much value so pass on this race. Hervey Bay went a good race for second but once again was Rated $3.20 and was no value, so saved our money. Back for race 1 at Otaki.

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Update 11.37 It is a great day for racing and it is a day for the bookies with large open fields.

I hope you got on Convinced in the first at $3.50 or $1.80 top 2, as he is no value now at $2.05. So no bet with our $1500 bank. Second, so if you took the suggested multi you will be happy. That’s why you have Rated prices. Back for race 2.

Good morning,

It’s a beautiful day for racing. Some tricky races today. I’m doing updates throughout the day as we will need every bit of info we can get to turn a profit today.

Enjoy the ride.

Neil

I’ve found 3 bets worth having on a tricky Saturday of racing. I’ll post an update by 9 am Saturday.

There was a lot of positive feedback from last week. So I’ll be doing the same as last week and starting with a bank of $1500 and posting bets throughout the day about 2 minutes or earlier before the race. Last week we turned the $1500 into $3300. It is a definite advantage seeing the horses and betting closer to start time.

Bet of the day Ellerslie race 1 7.Convinced $3.10 FF

Value Bet of the day Randwick Race 5 14.Cruizingthestars $11 $25 bonus back if it loses

Big Value Bet Ellerslie Race 9 6.Dashing Dixie $16 FF

Multi of the day with the three below $10  returns $152.60

I’ll post the quaddie bets with the updates throughout the day.

Ellerslie 

Race 1

Confidence:2/5 Bonus Back Race 

7.Convinced fresh up looks well placed. She won fresh up last campaign and has that will to win- has looked ready to win based on her two trials  and looks to have strengthened  up since her last campaign. RP $2.50 $3.50 FF.  RP $1.50, $1.80 Top 2 Looks a good bet.

Race 2

Confidence:2/5 Bonus Back Race

1.Hervey Bay has been racing in harder fields and drops back to maiden company but a large field. 1200 suits better and McNab is on top, RP $3.20, $2.80 FF

Race 3 Bonus Back Race

Confidence:2/5

3.Crimson Sky gets back and runs on like a very good mare. But she finds traffic problems. This time, Sam Collett jumps back on, she has drawn wide, so I’ll bet she gets to the outside as soon as she can in the straight and makes sure she has a clear run to the post. RP $3.60, $5 FF

Race 4 Bonus Back Race

Confidence:2/5

7.Born To Be Royal last start relaxed well in the trail and when out sustained a strong finish through the line. Craig Grylls retains the mount and she looks headed for open class as she is a natural stayer from the right stable. Drawn to get a winning run. RP $3,60, $3.70 FF

Race 5

Confidence:2/5

13.Wee Nessy won here over 1400m fresh up in April then ran a game second over 1500m. She won her trial well and if Kennedy can get her out just as well as he did in the trial, she is a decent chance of winning. RP $4, $4.50 FF

Race 6

Confidence:2/5

4.Boxmoss has closed off strongly in both of his two runs over 1600m. He won strongly here over 2100m in Open Company and is capable of a very good closing 600. There should be an even pace in this which will allow him to use that finishing burst to good effect. RP $4, $4.80 FF

Race 7

Confidence:2/5

9.Chatelle Rose has won her 3 sprint races very strongly. Drawn well here and should bounce and lead early. If she a couple will have a look at crossing and if they are not stupid, will settle 2^nd outer and 1 x1. Then she may get a softish 200 or 400 and the form she is in, it would be no surprise to see her kick away and hold on. Depends on how the track is playing. RP $4.50, $6 FF

Race 8

Confidence:2/5

4.Talisker won fresh up last year in a very good time for 1400m. he has had two trials with the blinkers off and they are on here. He has drawn 1 and maps to get an ideal run in the trail and does look very hard to beat as long as the inside is not off. RP $3.60, $4.50 FF

Danger:

If the inside is off, 2.Cannon Hill comes into it. Went a nice race here fresh up after snagging from the wide draw. Drawn wide here again.

Race 9

The speed map shows early speed out wide and a few looking to get handy behind the leaders.

Confidence:2/5

6.Dashing Dixie came home very strongly for third last start behind Hawea in the best closing sectionals. The start before that she hit the line strongly in the best closing sectionals. So 1400m is going to suit really well and and even pace should allow her to get over these too. From the draw she is likely to settle behind midfield and is capable of upsetting these at great odds. $5, $16 FF $3.30 Top 4 and a rated price of $1.70 so a good bet for a Top 4

Race 10

Confidence:2/5

8.Free Bird ran a nice race fresh up at Matamata and seems to best this way round. Found some strong form here last campaign and with a good run, is right in this. RP $5, $8 FF

Otaki

Race 1

Confidence:2/5

12.Aim To Miss went a brave race second up when sat 3 wide in the open and was still coming towards the end of the race for second. The speed rating was good too. Her dam was a 4win tough mare too. Drawn well with Kelly Myers on. She proved hard to load last start so hopefully her loading manners have been practiced. RP $4, $4.40 FF, $5 Odds Surge

Race 2

Confidence:2/5

1.Singletary has gone good races in stronger fields and I see the blinkers are going on as well as a tongue tie. I feel then blinkers will make a big difference and she can win this weaker race. RP $2.50, $2.10 FF , $2.35 OS

Randwick

Race 5 Up to $25 back if your horse loses in this race

Confidence:2/5 

14.Cruising the Stars fresh up was back when the jumped, use up to get handy, and was too strong for them late over 1000m here in a very good speed rating on a Good track. She has a good wet track action and has won 3 from 3 on soft going. Drawn 2 with Jason Collett on again and there is plenty of speed in this. Likely to settle midfield and has the strength now and the blinkers going on have certainly helped her concentrate. RP $5, $11 and $3.40 FF RP Top 4 $1.60, $2.50 FF