Are you sick of sorting out a winner and not having enough on it when it seemed great value? Then this professional staking plan will put you on the right path and take random betting out of the equation.
If you want to bet like a professional then I strongly suggest you use this staking plan. If you want to have any chance of making a long term profit then you must follow all three of the following rules– if you don’t follow one of them, then your account will surely run dry.
Rule 1. Select regular winners
Have a sound selection method or system of selecting winners. If you can regularly pick winners then you have Rule Number one in place. If you don’t, then maybe that’s where I can help you out.
Rule 2 Rate the horse’s chance with a $$$$ value.
We need to put a price on what we think its realistic chances are. If you think your selection is in with a royal show and the likely dangers aren’t suited by the track conditions, or the likely pace of the race or for whatever reasons, then rate it at $2 or less. If there is one other realistic chance price it between $2.05 and $3.50.
When there are two or more other chances price it at $3.55 or more.
After a while you will get pretty good at it.
The important things to remember are think as though you were a bookie setting the odds. What price would you be prepared to offer to others to back him? The price can vary from $1.10 up to $10.
It is best to err on the high side when you first start doing this as pricing it too low, as you’ll find out, can lead to betting too much of your bank.
Now onto the question of how much do we put on him?
Rule 3 The better the value, the bigger the bet.
This is where we need to find the VALUE for our selections. To make a long term profit we need to find value. This is a staking plan that allows you to work out how much to put on when your selection is paying more than your rated price. If you can’t get a price at more than your rated price you can still back it but that is your call. I back them occasionally but I know it’s the good value selections that will really make up for any losses and give me a chance to make a long term profit.
Below is the table to show you the first step in working out your bet. I’ll refer to bets in Units as the amount of each unit will depend on what you can afford.
In these examples I’ll make each unit worth $10 to make it easier to work out.
If your rated price ( RP) is $2.00 or less then bet 3 units
If your RP is between $2.05 and $3.50 bet 2 units
And anything over $3.55 bet 1 units
Now this is where the beauty of this staking plan comes in. Basically, it allows you to bet more when there is a better price than your rated price. If you have rated your selection at $2 and you are able to obtain a price of $4 you are getting excellent value. Now to work out how much you bet you divide the price you can get by your rated price.
So 4 divided by 2 equals 2 – piece of cake so far. I call that ‘2’ the Value Factor.
You then multiply the units indicated in Step 1, by the Value Factor, which in this case is 2.
Let’s take a recent example. At Gisborne on 18 February 2018, Powerball looked very well placed after his last start close fourth in a much stronger field. Plus his sectionals and the race time indicated he was the best horse in that field. I rated him a $2.40 chance. Bookies opened him at $3.80 which was good value, but how much do you put on?
He is rated a $2.40 chance so that means 2 units go on, multiplied by the value factor. That is calculated by dividing the price you can get by your rated price. In this case $3.80/$2.40 = 1.58. Then we multiply that value factor by 2 to get the final number of units bet. 1.58 x 2 = 3.16 units or rounded to 3.2 units. So the better the value, the more you put on.So if you are betting in $10 units, you would put $32 win on Powerball. If you missed the opening odds and could only get $3, then 3/2.4 = 1.25 or rounded to 1.3, then 1.3 x 2 = $26 win.
Here’s a few more examples to help you understand it:
Horse A is rated $1.70 and you can get $3 with bookies. 3/1.7= 1.76, rounded to 1.8. 3 units go on horses rated under $2 so 3 x 1.8 = 5.4 units
Horse B is rated 3.80 and you can get $7 with bookies. 7/3.8 = 1.84 rounded to 1.8, so 1 unit goes on horses rated 3.55 or higher. So 1.8 x 1 = 1.8 units on horse B.
So that is how it works. Try it on paper first so you can get the feel of how it works then when you can quickly work the bets out, and you have done your homework thoroughly, then you are in business.