Alvin’s Dream winning here on a heavy 11 track on August 10 2019 in race 9 from an inside draw
Race 11 and lucky last ( hopefully) 3.Van Blanc 2nd looks the fittest in the race and ready to win. Gets 4kgs off and if the trainers can get Magnaminous man to win fresh up over a middle distance earlier in the day, they can certainly have this one fit enough to win this.
For the quaddie syndicate we have spent $1996.50 on a 30% bet at Flemington Yes $3,115.90 returned as there was a late scratching in leg 3 and the off course favourite won. June 20 Spent $1996.50, returned $3115.90 = closing balance of $5924.40
R6 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 13
R7 1, 5, 7, 8, 10
R8 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12, 16
R9 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13
Race 10. 6.Hunter Villain 2nd stands out as the best looking and fittest. Should land near the pace.
Race 9 13.Parisian looks set to win. The track will favour him as he should be able to lead or be on it and with the weight advantage, he does justify the $2.20 price. 11.Answer Back and 7.Double Happy top win after opening at $15s and backed into $8.50 as Big Value bet of the day both look fit enough to be in this.
Race 8 6.Alaskan Gold 1st $4.20 does look the best of all of them and the money has come for him. And Zentarri does look fit and has the blinkers on.
Race 7 14.Altar Girl does look the fittest and ready to win at good odds. 5.Diogenes is tough and looks fitter than most. Nice result with a $41 quinella and Altar Girl paying $6 a place
Race 6 2.Magnaminous Man looks fit enough to be hard be the one to beat at then weights. 1st $6 it took a few races but despite having the toughest run, still won.
Race 5 For Phil, I’m going to split the bet on 7.Ferindi, who looks very fit and ready to win, and 10.My Superior Girl, who is also ready. Both $19 win at $3.80 Ff and $4.80 Ff
The inside has proved to be an advantage so far. Riders will be looking to get out and lead or be on it, so it may set up for a closer this time. below is the speed map. 7.Ferindi does look the leader but will get plenty of pressure from at least 4 others. My Superior Girl could land about 7th outer and get the last run at them. She is the bet horse in the field and can win this.
2.Back In A Flash is ready to go well and will be charging home.
I see Keen Power is scratched in Oz. No other bets there. I’ll put the $38 of Phil’s, who won Heads Up with the Newcastle Knights-10.5, on Race 5 10.My Superior Girl at $4.20 FF
Race 3 2.Wild Like looks bright and fit enough to win. If it can get out about 2/3 wide in the straight, he can charge past these.
Race 2 4.Air Centre looks ready to win. Speedy is a bit hot and may race a bit hard and be vulnerable late.
The inside few widths are definitely no disadvantage so if Sheesnotezy can lead ok can win. 8 and 6 look as fit as anything else and look the two here. 35.05 last 600m so about right for a heavy 11/12 track
Update 10.05 a.m.
I’ve just walked down the straight at Pukekohe and it is better than I thought it would be. The inside should be ok for the first 3 or 4 races then they are likely to get off the rail after it has been churned up a bit. About 2/3rds of the way out the ground is consistently better and the outside 5m is even better, but they may not want to go that wide at least early on. It is quite holding as my Stick In The Mudometer was difficult to pull out in areas. Thick fog will hopefully burn off soon.
Two horses have been galloped near the inside rail and didn’t make a huge impression. I’d say around a 1.16 track for 1200m but as there are no 1200m races today around 1.10 for 1100m.
I’ll be posting an update before each race and will take a Melbourne Quaddie for the Syndicate which I’ll post by 4 p.m.
Heads Up below – The Goat was 3 from 3 last week and he is very keen on the Rabbitohs -9.5 ( now -10.5) tonight at $1.90 Yes easily
Next Update by 10 a.m. Saturday and I will be posting the Birdcage Bully about 2 minutes before each race.
Bet of the day Randwick Race 2 5.Keen Power $2.80Ff No Quality bets Scratched
Value bet of the day Pukekohe Race 5 10.My Superior Girl $4.20 4th
Big value Bet Race 9 7.Double Happy $12 FF 1st $9
Phil, who won the Heads Up Multi this week has the Rabbitohs -10.5 $1.90 v The Warriors into Keen Power at Randwick $2.80 FF to return $106.40
Confidence: 3/5 Not a Quality bet
5.Keen Power scratched last start second up drew out and eased back rather than risking getting caught wide. But he got too far back and was dictated to by where he could go 500m out. But once clear, really unleashed late 35.94/12.65 the fastest of the race. So third up peaking, and up to 1200m looks ideal on a heavy track which will suit him. RP $2.50, $3.20 FF
Update 4 10 p.m. ( next update by 2 p.m. Friday with more comments on runners in races. No Quality bets. Remember it doesn’t get much than this for punters with every horse’s fitness a query, plus we have a very heavy track to deal with. I’d suggest looking at taking trifectas and quaddies etc and try and get some value that way.
Having said that, the best value bets so far are:
Race 1 8.Sheesnoteasy $4.60 FF
Race 6 2.Magnanimous Man $4.60 Ff 1st $6
Race 9 7.Double Happy $12 FF 1st $9
Pukekohe Park early preview.
Update 11 a.m. Thursday.
20mm of rain is forecast today on the already Heavy 11 track.
The track plays fairly evenly there early on,on a heavy track then they gradually work out to the centre. Although at the July 19th meeting here on a 1.18 for 1200m track when the rail was out 6m ( Rail true Saturday), Whoshe Girl came from 3 back inner in the last race on the rail, to lead 400m out, get out a few widths and win.
And on the August 10th meeting, on a heavy track running 1.17 for 1200m, in race 9, Alvin’s Dream drew 1, shared the pace on the rail, came out 4 widths to get a break on them 300m out and held on well three widths out here. And in the previous race a similar thing happened. So it probably is just case of being able to handle the ground and being fit enough to win.
Confidence: 2/5 Sheeznoteasy should lead but if she has to work too hard to get there, Hilliard looks the likely one to run her down late.
8.Sheeznoteasy has had plenty of goes after leading in most of her races and being run down late over 1200m races. After the break she trialled at Te Rapa and sped to the lead setting a fast pace and bolted in. She ran the fastest time of the 17 heats to the 600m mark yet still came home in the third fastest last 600m off the front. The two negatives are the heavy track and wide draw. But with ten runners, she does look the leader with a clean beginning and if she can cross to the rail she will make the first race back after lockdown, very interesting. If Chelsea can give her a breather at some point, she can hold on. Blinkers come off which seems to help her settle better too.
Dangers in order:
6.Hilliard ( Chad Ormsby) looked good leading all the way in his first trial and ran a close second at the Te Rapa trials recently. Ideal action to handle the heavy track and is a big strong 3yo gelding. Drawn the inside and has the early speed to lead or trail and looks to have the manners to corner well and be the main danger to Sheeznoteasy.
10.Maenad looked good winning her trial leading all the way and her action and breeding suggests she won’t mind a heavy track as much as others will. Part owned by Brendon McCullum.
5.Exclusive won his trial well from last in December. Didn’t seem to have a lot of early pace so is likely to be a fair way off Sheeznoteasy with 200m to go.
3.Uncle Terry won his trial very well at Matamata and his breeding suggests a bog will suit.
1.Divine Dive won his trial the same day but 4 lengths slower than Sheeznoteasy.
4.Bounty looked good leading all the way in his last trial win but has an action better suited to a dryer track.
1.Speedy Meady has the best rating on a heavy track of any of these by 4 lengths with his 3kgs off. I really do feel he is a better horse off the pace so from the wide draw, with early speed under him., if he can tuck in 3 wide cover and come at them late, he can win. RP $3.80, $3.80 FF
4.Air Centre led all the way from barrier 1 at Ellerslie on a 1.14 for 1200m track. She won fresh up here over 1200m and has the early speed to lead or be on it. $5.50 into $4.80 in early betting.
12.Gorgeous Geisha ran a game second here on a 1.18 for 1200m track and is ready to go a fresh up according to trainer Nigel Tiley. She did sweat up then so don’t be concerned if she does that today. Gets 4kgs off.
5.Liquid Inspiration rates well on a heavy track and if they go hard, which is likely, could swamp them late.
9.Ottavio will go forward but on a very testing track, may be vulnerable late.
2.Wild Like 3rd tri $303 ran home nicely late after cruising till about 100m out. Drawn out which may help as his action says a better track but may get to the better going wider out and late. RP $4
4.Happy Ego 2nd beat home race rival Fast Mover on a heavy track last campaign and drawn to get a good run.
3.Fast Mover 1st $8.90 has the two best FRs ( Formpro Ratings) on a heavy track and will be ready to fire from this stable.
10.Flaunting won fresh up at Wanganui on a 1.20 for 1200m track and ran a nice trial last week. early money for him and will be the one to beat. RP $4, $4.40 Ff
2.Back In A Flash will be right in this if fit enough. Gets 4kgs off and handles a bog well.
1.Battle Time handles a bog well and gets 3kgs off.
5.Crystallize 1st $4 hit strong form late last campaign. Has the early speed to be in a good position and gets 3kgs off.
10.My Superior Girl is a good mare and in her recent trial disputed a good tempo on the inner and wasn’t pushed to lead and got run down late in the fastest of the nine heats. She is ready to fire and a heavy track should be ok but the wide draw is no help. Needs a good ride but is going to win more races and to my eye, looks to get this by default. RP $3.50, $4.20 Ff
Bit of a raffle for the dangers: 7.Ferindi won his recent trial well but a bog is a real query as is 4.Sonofabutcher.
Confidence: 2/5 ( 1-2-3 dominate the Formpro Ratings on a heavy track )
2.Magnanimous Man 1st $6 is a tough winter galloper with an ideal bog track action. Gets 4kgs off and has the blinkers going on first up which is nearly always an indication a horse is ready to win. RP $4. $4.60 FF
1.Sweet Treat won her trial at Te Rapa very well and won an Open handicap at Rotorua against a stronger field rating FR111, 5 lengths better than 3.Windy Height who is a chance if fit enough.
5.Diogenes 1st $5 ran a game second here on a heavy 11 and ran good races in nearly every start after that. Won a recent jumpout here and has an ideal action for a slog in the mud. Gets 4kgs off but draw wide, which may be a plus by this time of day. RP $5.00
9.Zenntari won a recent jumpout here and the blinkers go on fresh up. He has won here on a heavy track when the blinkers went on so with Danielle Johnson up, he could do it fresh up. RP $7, $8 FF
10.Bernaud ran a nice trial at Te rapa and has the best FR on a slow to heavy track by far with a third in an R82 at Te Rapa behind The Good Fight.
7.Lord Valentine has won here and just beaten on a 1.18 track at new Plymouth fresh up.
13.Taree if in the mood could easily win.
6.Alaskan Gold 1st $4 won really well well on a heavy track at Rotorua. Tough and goes well fresh.
15.Whoshe’s Girl has won here on a bog from the inside and gets 3kgs off.
The speed map shows no obvious leader and they are likely to want to stay away from the inside down the home straight, so expect a few on pace and wide with a moderate tempo likely.
Confidence: 2/5 The early betting shows 7.Double Happy is the best backed so far $15 to 12 FF.
7.Double Happy 1st $9 ran a strong 2nd and 1st here on heavy tracks 3rd and 4th up over middle distances. On June 2nd in a jumpout here he ran 3rd just behind the leaders full of running. He will relish a slog to the line and with his natural staying ability and his ability to accelerate in that ground, means with his 51kgs, the Nigel Tiley trained horse is well placed here. RP $7, $12 in from $15 FF
Dangers in order:
13.Parisian in his recent trial looked very ready to go fresh up when jumping handy then was allowed to slide to the lead. From there he relished his work and cruised away in the ground. If this was a race meeting he would have run the best speed rating all day against the best field all day. He looks stronger and more professional now. He had the blinkers on in the trial and they have been replaced with the side winkers, so they must think they have him spot on to win fresh up. With Bailey Rogerson in the saddle, he gets in on 52kgs and with not a lot of speed in the race, he could easily lead but he doesn’t have to, and with the weight advantage over nearly every other horse, he does look the one they will all have to run down, but at $2.40 on what is going to be a real test of stanima over the last 200 metres, he is no value at $2.40. RP $4 $2.40 Ff
9.Switch In Time from the strong Tiley stable won fresh up at Avondale on a Dead track beating Paint The Town who went on to good form. Then second up he won over 1360m on a very heavy track. Third up he won here over 1600m in 1.47 so we know he will handle a slog. Ran 3rd in a recent jumpout here and if there is money for him, he can win. One to also look out for in the birdcage.
11.Answer Back has won here and goes well on a heavy track. Nice action for a heavy track and gets in on a light weight. Maps to get the ideal run off the fence as that is likely to be out of bounds by this time of day. One for the upset.
12.Good Vibes looked ready to go fresh when running a good third in his recent trial. Handles a heavy track well and is a place chance.
4.Mont Ventoux 2nd has won here on a Slow 7 and bolted in on a very heavy track 1.47 for 1600m track at Ellerslie.Trainer Rudy Liefting usually gets them ready fresh up so can be in this in a slog home. Top rated on a heavy track after weight adjustments. In a recent jumpout here just ran a fair race though.
10.Tipical ran a fair trial and has placed on heavy tracks but should find a few too good here.
2.Major Tom 3rd has his best form over a middle distance on better tracks. Won his recent trial nicely though handling the ground ok. Could sneak into a place.
5.Cherry Lane faded out here on a very heavy track over 1600m. But has bolted in on heavy 11 track and won fresh up on a slow track as a maiden running faster time than the three other 1600m races including the R65 race. Good one to check in the birdcage.
1.Kaharau 1 placing from 7 starts fresh up. Last two campaigns won third up and fifth up over middle distances. Needs more ground.
6.Rodolfo relishes heavy ground but is best over a middle distance. If they go hard, could run into a place in a slog home.
8.Pursued should be outclassed- weak trial recently.
3.Spider hasn’t won since 2017 and best form is on a better surface.
3.Valante when he led all the way in an Open handicap at Tauranga over 2100m on a heavy 11 track, George Simon said,” Valante, the toughest of them all.” The blinkers stay on him and he has the best adjusted rating here. So with the inside draw, he has the early speed to secure the lead or trail. He is the proven vest horse in the field on a heavy track and although he is likely to need the run, so will all the rest and if he can hug the rail, he could just keep going while the others swing wide for better ground and with the 4kgs off, could get a winning break. RP $6, $8 FF
5.Vain Glory 1st $5 ran a nice 4th in a recent trial without being pushed. She is a tough stayer and the 1600m on a bog will suit her.
6.Hunter Villain 2nd is a nice galloper who led all the way on a Slow track over 2000m. His action is ok for a bog and he ran a good third in a recent fast run trial at Te Rapa. Gets 2kgs off and should be in this.
12.Twin Spinner has bolted in here on a heavy track beating Double Happy ( good chance in race 9 ) but hasn’t raced for 287 days. Ran a fair fifth at the recent jumpouts there and gets in on a light weight. Drawn wide so if that is advantage by this time of day, his chances increase.
4.Deejay Mac relishes a slog in the bog and is tough. Likely to be on the pace and be right in this.
3.Van Blanc is the ideal bog track galloper with a high knee action and proved that when charging home at Tauranga on a 1.51 bog track over 1600m. He is bred to win a few races and fresh up for this strong fella with 4kgs off, makes him the one to beat. Rates equally on top with Summer Warrior on a heavy track after weight adjustments. RP $4.50, $6.50 FF
2.Summer Warrior handles a bog well and rates equally on top with Van Blanc on a heavy track after weight adjustments.
5.Gabriel rates well and has residual fitness on his side.
12.Prestigious Lad has run 2nd on a bog track and Sam Weatherley will give him every chance.
4.Bullit rates well on a bog and is a blowout chance.