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Whanganui, jumpout videos plus Dog Derby preview

I’ve been through the Whanganui form and with all the jumpout form around the maiden races, it is hard to have a bet with any confidence in many races- selections here. How hard can it be to employ someone to film the last 200m of each heat and post it on Youtube. I was at Matamata yesterday and below is the last 200 metres of a race which is all we need from the jumpouts so we can the horses and how they are going to the line.

The forecast is for occasional rain through to this evening so it is likely to get a downgrade.

Update:

Speed Watch 2019 NZ Derby

It’s the turn of Cambridge to take the spotlight tonight with a cracking day of racing around the country.

Like its horse racing equivalent, the Derby is a prestigious race for the younger dogs (this is a “Restricted Age” event).  However, the quality in the field shows just how good some of these younger dogs are many of the field having competed recently in the Auckland Cup.

Box statistics

Cambridge is a little different to courses like Auckland, Addington and Whanganui which are smaller, tighter courses.  For the sprints and middle distance races, there’s just two turns – the races start down the back straight.

The Derby is run over 457m.  No surprises, the most wins have come from box 1 with 19% of winners.  Box 2 has recorded 15% of winners while you need to go to the extreme outside for the next with box 8 clocking up 14% of winners.

At the other extreme, box 6 has just 8% of winners.

In run position

“In run position” is the technical way of describing each runner ends up during the race.

In greyhound racing, being in front is generally a distinct advantage as it means the leading dogs avoid jostling and bumping.  The leaders can just focus on trying to catch the lure.

At Cambridge over the 457m, 47% of winners will be the leader at the first bend.  Nearly 70% of winners will be in the first two.

At the other end, just 1 in ten races is won by dogs who are fifth or worse at the first bend.

So finding the dogs that are likely to lead or be on the pace can be the key to finding the likely winner.

Speed map

There looks to be a lot of pace in this race with most of the field having claims to the early pace.

The two favourites – Bigtime Paddy (4) and Shallay Pallay (2) – are both drawn well and have early pace.

Siblings Allen Ablett (5) and Dirk Bale (6) are also well supported and have early pace but face tougher draws.

The speed map suggests the Bigtime Levi in box 3 is likely to get the dreaded squeeze while heat winner Opawa Rooster in box 7 appears to have in all ahead of her – literally.

The interesting runner is Avenger Bale in box 1.  As we have seen, box 1 can be a distinct advantage but he maps to get back and perhaps open the rails up for Shallay Palley in box 2.

Beautiful Boy (8) in the pink rug will simply need luck but from the outside box he can potentially avoid the worst of any troubles inside him.

A reminder that speed maps for all NZ greyhound races are now available on the TAB’s web app.

Selections

The draw could well play a part in the outcome of the tonight’s big race.

Shallay Pallay won from box 8 last week and likely has a superior draw this week, especially with the likelihood that Avenger Bale in box 1 could be a little slow away.  Shallay Pallay jumped handed in the Auckland Cup and was only beaten by the winner (Dirk Bale) taking a flyer.

Conversely Bigtime Paddy won last week from the ace and this week he comes from box 4.  That alone could make it tougher for Paddy.

Allen Ablett and Dirk Bale are both top class dogs but will need to get away from the boxes.  Interestingly, Dirk Bale has yet to win at Cambridge.

It’s hard to go outside the four favourites, although as we say with the group ones at Auckland recently, anything can happen in greyhound racing – and often does!

In one, I’d go for Shallay Pallay but would look for some cover in my quaddie.

 

David Archibald
Formpro Ratings

 

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Good luck,

Neil

Enquiries to Neil at formpro@formpro.co.nz or text or phone 027 352 6402

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!