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Wednesday selections posted

Good morning,

Four Quality bets today here

I’ve had some interesting emails over the last week or so about the lack of selections for heavy track meetings. Some are all for it, some want more selections. I’ve been navigating our way through the last few wet months with the Quality bets, which have made a good profit. They were well placed runners that had the credentials to say they could win at value prices. Nowhere else in New Zealand do you get that advice.

Anyone can pick a winner but to have any chance of making money off the punt, you have to punt with just a little bit of common sense. Firstly, you have to have rated price as how the hell do readers know what chance I give it? If I rate it a $2 chance, you know I give it a 50% chance of winning. So if we can get on at $2.50 or more, we are getting good value. But if it drops to $1.80 or less, forget it, as long term, you WILL lose on those kind of bets with no value. If I gave no Rated Price and it wins, then I say after the race, ‘ It was too short,’ I’d get rotten eggs thrown at me. Secondly,  with the confidence levels shown, readers get a good quick indication of my confidence. 3/5, 4/5 and 5/5 rated races are the ones to bet into seriously, as they are where you will make your money long term.

The Punters Graveyard is overflowing with punters who thought they could back the winner of nearly every race, backed poor value runners, chased their losses, then gone broke. Don’t guarantee your ticket to that place of death, it is dark, gloomy and a bit chilly in Winter. Get your punting organised which means bet within your limits, get a betting bank together, and back value runners.

Today we have a Heavy 10 track at Pukekohe Park with rain about. For me, I just won’t be having a serious bet there. It is likely to favour outside runners, but then again, who knows, as we don’t get a full penetrometer service across the track! You have to wait to see how the day develops.  I’ve selected one horse there with a confidence level of 2/5 with not a lot of value. But I’ve found four other runners at Wanganui and Sandown, that I have used times and sectionals, and replays to do the form on – much more enjoyable to analyse, and they are all nice value.

No update today except for the two Quality bets at Sandown 2 minutes before each race.

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Good luck,

Neil

Enquiries to Neil at formpro@formpro.co.nz or text or phone 027 352 6402

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!