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Wednesday preview below

Good morning,

I’ll be doing the Tauranga Punters Club again this Friday and will be doing my best to make up for last time there! You can enter here.

Some nice horses going round today on a Dead 4 track with a good forecast. No Quality bets as no Good confidence bets of 3/5 or better at good value.

Bet of the day Race 8 4.He’s A Doozy $4.80 FF 1st $3.60

Value bet of the day Race 5 8.Fiddyafortnight $6 FF  1st $4.20 

Sneaky of the day Race 7 15.Flying Surf $19 Ff 2nd by a bob $6 place

Suggested late quaddie for $16.80 for 10%

R7    1, 2, 8, 10, 12, 15
R8   4, 15
R9   7, 14
R10   3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

Hastings

Race 1

Not a race to bet into. many chances and the favourite, Amathusia, is having her first go over ground against fit horses, and horses looking for more ground too, so a race to watch. The only one worth a small eachway bet is 15.Truefalls. She got too far back last start and ran home in the third fastest last 200m. Has a staying action.

Race 2

The three favoured runners are fresh up and debuting, so it is difficult to get a good line on them, so pass.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

13.La Flora Belle  is a well bred filly from Te Akau who has been set for this Pearl Bonus race on debut. her last trial was a very quiet one when allowed to get back and strode home strongly for fourth with plenty in hand. Drawn to land closer is a nice a nice eachway chance.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

9.Kaluanui two starts back after getting back she put her head down from the turn and kept up s strong gallop right to the line to just miss running the fastest closing sectionals of the race for all categories. 1600m looks ideal next up. But next up she stayed at 1400m and ran a strong finishing second at Awapuni. Now she steps to 1600m after a 39 day break from a wide draw which are two negatives. It is a weak field lacking strong form, so if ready, should be able to get over these. The money comes for the Bary horses if they are ready so watch out for that. RP $4

Danger:

10.Platinum Petals  ran a solid second on debut and tidy 6th second up. Drawn well with Kozzi up.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

8.Fiddyafortnight 1st $4.20 has run the times and sectionals to win a maiden. She ran a top 2nd here in October rating a Formpro Rating R 100,  beating many race winners. Last start she lost a winning advantage by looking to get out wide before the turn and came home late for 5th running the second fastest last 200 metres. Craig Grylls knows her well, and with a better ride can break through against these. The pressure is on the trainers here as she has the ability to win this race easily. RP $4.50, $6 FF

Race 6

Confidence:2/5

1.Pep Torque 1st $9.60   ran a top 2nd here in an Open handicap behind Times Ticking over 1600m. He has been freshened up and gets 3kgs off from a good draw. Should be an eachway chance from there. RP $6, $10 FF

Danger:

10.Serena two solid thirds and drawn to get all favours.

Race 7 First leg of the quaddie

15.Flying Surf 2nd $6  was confidently backed to win two starts back and after having the toughest run, almost got the job done. Was caught in the slower ground last start. Drawn 1 here and maps to land in the trail or 3 back inner. She  is just the type to upset with a good run.

2.Horopito bolted in here over 1600m in his maiden win in a good speed rating. Drawn wide so needs a good ride.

1.Overstayer 1st $7  won strongly over 1600m at Te Rapa then a solid third here over 2100m. Freshened up and goes well that way. Big strong fella who can carry weight.

10.Exquisite Pearl  beat a weak maiden field in the slowest of the three 1400m races and is a 3yo filly against older horses. Lisa is an obvious plus but a few negatives there.

12.Tuigirl has to be in too as she has won both of her races here. Two fair runs in stronger R65 races.

8.Kelly’s Inspiration  has shown the ability to win another race or two and rates on top in the Formpro Ratings. If they go hard can do it with Danielle up.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

4.He’s A Doozy 1st $3.60   looked good running second to Silver Lake at Trentham and he outfinished Signora Nera ( third) who has won twice since. he then started at Otaki and got into an awkward spot on the inner in a slowly run race on a slow to heavy track and only battled home for fifth. His action says he needs a Dead or better track and he gets that here. He strikes a weak maiden and third up with that experience under his saddle, he can break through here. Negative is the 34 day break.  RP $3.80, $4.80

Dangers:

15.Baby Cheeses  ran a good 4th last start setting a good tempo and fought hard for fourth. Visor Blinkers go on and drawn to lead again and gets 1kg off with Kozzi up.

6.Mongolian Wings  was ridden out to win his trial as were the 2nd and 3rd horses. Drawn out as well so definitely beatable.

Race 9

Confidence:2/5

14.Camarosa 2nd  on debut got well back on the inner but the way she closed off, then was held up late, and was still able to run the best closing sectionals in all categories, says a lot about her potential. Up to 1400m definitely suits. RP $2.80, $2.70 FF

Dangers:

7.Shang Chi  looked good running home for 4th in his last trail and was under double wraps. Nice galloper Cost $120k and looks set to run a top race on debut.

Race 10

Confidence:2/5

5.Hot Spring Project  won her maiden here over 1300m second up and looks set to repeat that after a strong third fresh up beating Appelant who won next up at Ellerslie. Drawn to get a good run. RP $4

Dangers:

4.Super Sid  won his maiden well. Will be ready to fire fresh up.

7.Ruby Rocks  won fresh up over 1300m and drawn to get all favours.

9.On Show  goes well here and was just beaten by far Site last start who won well again at Otaki.

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!