Good Confidence bets results with 2 out of 3 winning 10.7 bet and 22.1 units rturned = 11.4 units net profit
While it was a relatively quiet day of racing at Matamata, the race that grabbed most punters was race three. Hostility looked very good at the trails but came off the pace to win them. Most punters joined the bandwagon and backed him into $1.35! But subscribers knew that Tajana was race fit and had race experience under his belt. So with Tajana likely to settle handier and Hostility having to do more work going around horses, I’ll nearly always go for the race fit runner.
When she got out to $4.60 FF in virtually a two horse race, she became an excellent value bet. And that’s how it turned out. She had a good run on the fence and Hostility came wide and led in the straight, but that race fitness and experience kicked in and she fought back to win.
Most punters know that finding a false favourite is one of keys to making money in this tough game. Yes, you can get it wrong as I did when Willydoit won the Derby impressively, but I had an opinion based upon what I saw. You have to accept the fact that at times you will get it wrong but when you get it right, the pay off makes up for your bloopers.
Matamata
Bet of the Day Race 4 3.Giacomo $1.65 FF 2nd
Value Bet of the Day Race 5 4.Whats The One Code $7.50 FF 3rd
Race 1
Confidence:2/5 1st $2.50
1.Lovely Friends was good last start when racing over a middle distance first time, settled back on the fence, was held up for a few strides and finished hard for second to a handy horse in excellent sectionals. She is a strong well bred staying type and ready to win. Drawn well and should get a good run. RP $3.60, $3.70 FF
Race 2
Confidence:2/5 2nd
5.Sister Cynane has draw wide and will likely snag with the early pace here. She just needs the right run from there to put these away but looked good last campaign and definite improver in time. RP $2.50, $2.20 FF
Race 3
Confidence:3/5 1st $5.40 3.8 units at 4.60 FF = 17.5
4.Tajana has run two very good races from tough positions. She has drawn 1 here and that should make sure she can settle in the first 6 and her race fitness and experience should tell over the favourite in the straight. RP $2.40. $3.10 FF
Race 4
Confidence:3/5 1st $1.50 2.8 units at $1.65 = 4.6
3.Giacomo maps to get an uncontested lead here. Last start he almost won against a stronger field and set an even pace, so if he gets a softer lead, he rates well clear of these on their last run and he should win. RP $1.80, $1.65 Ff
Race 5
Confidence:2/5
4.What’s The One Code has run some good races lately in stronger fields. He maps to get an uncontested lead here and if Amber can rate her well, she can kick on these and be hard to to run down. RP $5, $7.50 FF
Race 6
Confidence:3/5 2nd 4.1 units
8.Gossip almost won last start over 1200m and 1400m looks perfect for her. She strikes a weak field and looks very hard to beat. RP $1.70, $2.35 FF
