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Wednesday preview below

Update 9.58 a.m. No further bets

Good morning,

Late yesterday I was going to post an early preview of Hastings but wanted to wait till all scratchings were known to work out speed maps, as Brendan, our local Track Walker, who has been providing us with accurate predictions of what the track will do for years now, says it is going to really favour on fence runners, with the inside two metres much better than any other part which is very inconsistent and slower. So I’ve studied the fields to find which races I can confidently predict which runners will lead and have come up with three. It is a waste of time looking for anything else during the day that will get back or off the rail. One of the leaders, Viking is the best value and has been confidently backed already and is the only Quality bet so far.

I’ll post an update by 10.15 with any head to heads etc.

Bet of the Day Hastings Race 4 1.Viking $3.40 RP $1.80 Quality bet at 5.7 units at $3.40Ff 1st $2.40 and won easing down

Value bet of the day  Hastings Race 7 3.English Gambler $3.80 FF  1st $3.40 

Speed map Special Hastings race 1 6.Sorrida $3.20 FF

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5

6.Sorrida  in her two trial winds and her race debut jumped well and showed good early zip to lead and win, except for her debut where she fought well for second over 1200m. So the drop back to 800m where Lisa Allpress will no doubt look to jump her out well and hunt towards the rail, so she can get full use of that better ground and does look very hard to beat of she can lead. The negative is the two drawn inside her will be looking to do the same thing, and they have both shown good early speed too. So it is going to be a greyhound race to the first turn and it  just comes down to the jump. RP $2.50, $3.20 FF

Race 4

Quality bet

Confidence: 3/5

1.Viking  looks very well placed here after running a strong second last campaign ( But looked a bit immature)  but showed that he matured into a real racehorse after a good break when winning his recent trial at Ellerslie. I’ve compared his sectionals and times to two previous heats on the same day run before him to get a gauge on that win. Both were won by next up winners, Now is Now and Make Time, both winners at Avondale last week.  As you can see he ran the fastest sectionals of the three heats and virtually matched them over the last 200m to run 4 length and 6 length overall faster time and all three were ridden out. Plus his heat was after theirs when it was a bit more chewed up. He looks like he really wants to race now and has the breeding, being out of Irish Fling, who won 5 races including the Telegraph in 1.07.48

He has drawn 3 and the two inside him are slower away so with his early speed, he should be able to lead ok and I can’t see anything wanting to take him on, so Leithal should be able to save some petrol for the last 400m and with the inside being a good place to be, he should be able to kick on these and be too good.

RP $1.80, $3.40 FF 5.7 units at $3.40 FF

Ellerslie trial Heat 28

My time 55.65

1st 300m 19.84 L600 35.81, 600 to 200m mark, 22.95,   L200 12.86

 

Heat 24 won by Make Time who won at Avondale next up.

My Time 56.28

20.41

1st 300m 20.42  L600 35.86, 600 to 200m mark, 23.05,   L200 12.81

 

Heat 27 won by Now Is Now who won next up at Avondale last Saturday

My Time 56.56

1st 300m 20.62  L600 35.94, 600 to 200m mark, 23.10,   L200 12.84

 

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

3.English Gambler  looked above average when winning his two races at Tauranga from 2nd outer and leading. His second placing in the $101k Taranaki Challenge also showed he was a pretty good horse as all but three of the 14 runners have won since. After an unsuccessful campaign to Australia, he then ran an improver’s race at Ellerslie in a stronger R676 field and looked a definite improver out of it. He drops back to a weaker R65 field and maps to lead or get 2nd outer with not a lot of pressure likely. Matt Cameron will suit the big fella and if the inside is still the place to be, he should be very hard to beat. I spoke to trainer Lauren Brennan and she is very pleased with his progress since his fresh up run. RP $3.50, $4 FF

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!